Russia, Ukraine and the United States have agreed to a tentative ceasefire deal in the Black Sea, allowing most combat on shore to continue. The contours of the agreement largely align with Russian proposals, and Ukrainian leaders said that they would watch Russian compliance closely in the days to come.
According to the Kremlin, the agreement will allow state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to relink to the international SWIFT bank messaging system, a key demand of Russian negotiators since 2022. The bank is under EU, UK and U.S. sanctions, and will require participation from European regulators to reconnect it to SWIFT.
The U.S. has also agreed to help Russia restore its “access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports,” according to a White House readout, adding that Russia could also benefit from reduced war risk insurance rates for shipping if the ceasefire holds. The White House did not describe any clear benefits for Ukraine.
After the announcement, Ukraine’s defense minister said that the success of the deal requires Russia to keep its military vessels in the eastern half of the Black Sea, continuing the status quo. Ukraine’s military has damaged, destroyed or sunk about one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet using missiles and drones, and as a practical matter, Russia’s surviving warships have been largely confined to the safety of the eastern half the sea. If the Russian Navy uses the ceasefire to transit near Ukraine’s shores again, Ukraine will have “full right to exercise right to self-defense,” said Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov.
The two sides are still working out the details of the deal, along with a parallel agreement to stop attacks on “energy infrastructure.” Russia has had considerable success in destroying Ukraine’s electrical grid with drones and missiles; for its part, Ukraine has been making strides in long-range suicide drone technology, and has been targeting oil refineries and pipelines deep within Russian territory. In talks with the White House, Russian President Vladimir Putin secured an agreement for an energy infrastructure ceasefire, which would allow Russia’s refining industry time to recover from the damage.
Long-range sea drone and aerial drone attacks have been Ukraine’s primary areas of success in the conflict over the past year, and these operations will cease under the twin agreements. Russia has gained a strong upper hand in front-line ground combat, which was not addressed in the talks and will continue as before. Even though the deal favors Russia’s comparative military strengths, Ukrainian leaders expressed little certainty that the Kremlin would adhere to the terms.
“The behavior of the Russian Federation in the coming days will show a lot, if not everything,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “If there are air alarms again, if there is military activity in the Black Sea again, if there are Russian manipulations and threats again, then we will have to take new measures – specifically against Moscow.”
